News
Happy New Year!
2002 wasn't much of a year for many UK bicycle businesses. The first quarter was a rip-roaring success (because of the fair weather, of course) but it went pear-shaped from the summer onwards. However, there are many indicators that 2003 will be much healthier for the bike trade.
Some suppliers did OK, and a few IBDs report better-than-average sales, but, for most, 2002 was a stinker. And that's on top of the annus horriblus that was foot-and-mouth blighted 2001.
It's likely 2003 will start as 2002 ended: challenging.
But 2003 will also be the year that IBDs can, if they so choose, group together and fight.
There are three main choices:
1. Remain aloof.
2. Get more involved with the newly proactive ACT. There's lots on offer, but shy bairns get nowt.
3. Explore the Euretco offering. The Profile the Bike Specialist retail programme is backed by a £1m investment. Euretco will pump makeover cash into IBD members, a very different proposition to the Bikeforce package.
Within the first few weeks of 2003 it will become apparent whether IBDs can combine 2 and 3 or whether they'll have to choose one or the other.
Option 1 is a choice, in the main, for super-power IBDs with geographically significant spheres of influence, or ultra-niche IBDs.
Of benefit to both IBDs and suppliers (and, of course, corporate bike retailers) will be the kind of promotional campaigns a levy could pay for. No news yet on the BAGB's 'fighting fund'. Hopefully, Bikebiz.co.uk will report on progress of the 'levy' early in the New Year.
It's also important for the Bicycle Association to continue its support of political lobby group, C-PAG (Cyclists' Public Affairs Group). This small body needs regular injections of small amounts of cash to continue its important work.
Influencing decision-makers can work wonders. Just look at what green transport lobbyists have brought about in London – the £5 congestion charge starts on 17th February. London IBDs are looking forward to an increase in cycle commuting. Other UK cities will be keeping close tabs on the experiment. If it works in London, many other British cities and towns will clamp down on unrestrained car-use. Bike sales could benefit.
Probably of more importance than any of the three IBD options, the levy, support of C-PAG, or congestion charging, is the one thing we can't control or influence: British weather.
We're in the hands of the Gods on that one. As the first quarter of 2002 demonstrated, a run of good weather can do wonders for the bike trade. Remember Spring last year? A bicycle drought looked likely...
Let's hope we get a similar run of good weather this year, but that the blue skies stay blue through summer and beyond. The best sales-lifting tonic we can get is an unseasonably warm and dry spring, a heatwave in the summer, and a dry and bright autumn.
Another fuel shortage would also lead to an uplift in sales.
Sadly for ordinary Iraqis, and possibly the world as a whole, a fuel crisis could be just around the corner. Blair and Bush look hellbent on war to affect regime-change in Iraq. This is a conflict that could engulf the entire Middle East, strangulating oil supplies to the West.
In the 1973 oil crisis, bikes sales rocketed.
